Global Warming 2020

Global Warming News : Ancient Mammals Shifted Diets As Climate Changed

— A new University of Florida study shows mammals change their dietary niches based on climate-driven environmental changes, contradicting a common assumption that species maintain their niches despite global warming.

Led by Florida Museum of Natural History vertebrate paleontologist Larisa DeSantis, researchers examined fossil teeth from mammals at two sites representing different climates in Florida: a glacial period about 1.9 million years ago and a warmer, interglacial period about 1.3 million years ago. The researchers found that interglacial warming resulted in dramatic changes to the diets of animal groups at both sites.

“When people are modeling future mammal distributions, they’re assuming that the niches of mammals today are going to be the same in the future,” DeSantis said. “That’s a huge assumption.”

Co-author Robert Feranec, curator of vertebrate paleontology at the New York State Museum, said scientists cannot predict what species will do based on their current ecology.

“The study definitively shows that climate change has an effect on ecosystems and mammals, and that the responses are much more complex than we might think,” Feranec said.

The two sites in the study, both on Florida’s Gulf Coast, have been excavated quite extensively, DeSantis said. During glacial periods, lower sea levels nearly doubled Florida’s width, compared with interglacial periods. But because of Florida’s low latitude, no ice sheets were present during the glacial period. Despite the lack of glaciers in Florida, the two sites show dramatic ecological changes occurred between the two periods.

Both sites include some of the same animal groups, allowing DeSantis, Feranec and Bruce MacFadden, Florida Museum curator of vertebrate paleontology, to clarify how mammals and their environments responded to interglacial warming.

The research examined carbon and oxygen isotopes within tooth enamel to understand the diets of medium to large mammals, including pronghorn, deer, llamas, peccaries, tapirs, horses, mastodons, mammoths and gomphotheres, a group of extinct elephant-like animals.

Differences in how plants photosynthesize give them distinct carbon isotope ratios. For example, trees and shrubs process carbon dioxide differently than warm-season grasses, resulting in different carbon isotope ratios. These differences are incorporated in mammalian tooth enamel, allowing scientists to determine the diets of fossil mammals. Lower ratio values suggest a browsing diet (trees and shrubs) while a higher ratio suggests a grazing diet (grasses).

Animals at the glacial site were predominantly browsing on trees and shrubs, while some of those same animals at the warmer interglacial site became mixed feeders that also grazed on grasses. Increased consumption of grasses by mixed feeders and elephant-like mammals indicates Florida’s grasslands likely expanded during interglacial periods.

Tooth enamel locks in the chemical signatures of the plants and water an animal consumes, allowing paleontologists to understand the diets and associated climate of fossil specimens that are millions of years old. To find these signatures, researchers run samples of tooth enamel through a mass spectrometer.

DeSantis and her collaborators analyzed enamel samples from 115 fossil teeth. For two of the specimens she took serial samples, small samples that run perpendicular to the growth axis and give insight into how the diet and climate changed over a specific period of time.

“That’s one of the cool things about using mammal teeth,” she said. “We can actually look at how variable the climate was within a year, millions of years ago.”

The study highlights the importance of the fossil record in understanding long-term ecological responses to changes over time, DeSantis said. While ecological studies of modern impacts can cover only limited spans of time, “this study emphasizes the importance of using the fossil record to look at how mammals and other animals responded to climate change in the past, also helping us gain a better understanding of how they might respond in the future.”

Journal reference:

DeSantis LRG, Feranec RS, MacFadden BJ. Effects of Global Warming on Ancient Mammalian Communities and Their Environments. PLoS ONE, 4(6): e5750 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0005750
Adapted from materials provided by University of Florida.

Source: Global Warming News, Climate Change, Greenhouse Gas Effects information at sciencedaily.com

Global Warming News : Climate Change Odds Much Worse Than Thought

The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago – and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well – such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important “to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science,” he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. “In that sense, our work is unique,” he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than previously estimated.

Prinn says these and a variety of other changes based on new measurements and new analyses changed the odds on what could be expected in this century in the “no policy” scenarios – that is, where there are no policies in place that specifically induce reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, the changes “unfortunately largely summed up all in the same direction,” he says. “Overall, they stacked up so they caused more projected global warming.”

While the outcomes in the “no policy” projections now look much worse than before, there is less change from previous work in the projected outcomes if strong policies are put in place now to drastically curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without action, “there is significantly more risk than we previously estimated,” Prinn says. “This increases the urgency for significant policy action.”

To illustrate the range of probabilities revealed by the 400 simulations, Prinn and the team produced a “roulette wheel” that reflects the latest relative odds of various levels of temperature rise. The wheel provides a very graphic representation of just how serious the potential climate impacts are.

“There’s no way the world can or should take these risks,” Prinn says. And the odds indicated by this modeling may actually understate the problem, because the model does not fully incorporate other positive feedbacks that can occur, for example, if increased temperatures caused a large-scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions and subsequent release of large quantities of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. Including that feedback “is just going to make it worse,” Prinn says.

The lead author of the paper describing the new projections is Andrei Sokolov, research scientist in the Joint Program. Other authors, besides Sokolov and Prinn, include Peter H. Stone, Chris E. Forest, Sergey Paltsev, Adam Schlosser, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, John Reilly, Marcus Sarofim, Chien Wang and Henry D. Jacoby, all of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, as well as Mort Webster of MIT’s Engineering Systems Division and D. Kicklighter, B. Felzer and J. Melillo of the Marine Biological Laboratory at Woods Hole.

Prinn stresses that the computer models are built to match the known conditions, processes and past history of the relevant human and natural systems, and the researchers are therefore dependent on the accuracy of this current knowledge. Beyond this, “we do the research, and let the results fall where they may,” he says. Since there are so many uncertainties, especially with regard to what human beings will choose to do and how large the climate response will be, “we don’t pretend we can do it accurately. Instead, we do these 400 runs and look at the spread of the odds.”

Because vehicles last for years, and buildings and powerplants last for decades, it is essential to start making major changes through adoption of significant national and international policies as soon as possible, Prinn says. “The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies.”

This work was supported in part by grants from the Office of Science of the U.S. Dept. of Energy, and by the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

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Journal reference:

A.P. Sokolov, P.H. Stone, C.E. Forest, R. Prinn, M.C. Sarofim, M. Webster, S. Paltsev, C.A. Schlosser, D. Kicklighter, S. Dutkiewicz, J. Reilly, C. Wang, B Felzer, H.D. Jacoby. Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. Journal of Climate, 2007; preprint (2009): 1 DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1
Adapted from materials provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Source: Global Warming News, Climate Change, Greenhouse Effects information at sciencedaily.com

Global Warming Articles : How Does Global Climate Change Affect our Life? by Erwin Heid

Greenhouse gases and aerosols have changed the composition of the atmosphere. The changes in the atmosphere have likely influenced the temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level. However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of global climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging. Global Climate change is something that you hear about almost everywhere you go. Most people understand the general concept of what climate change is but many do not know what the long term consequences are. Global warming is causing the planets temperature to rise steadily. As the temperature rises, the ice on the earth begins to melt and this in turn raises the sea level. This can have devastating effects in the future and it is up to us to help slow this process. There is no way to stop this entirely, but there are many ways consumers can help make this process happen slow down. We are wasting so many resources and constantly polluting our environment. Something as simple as changing to energy saving light bulbs in the home can help combat this major problem. You will get more detailed information in my following Articles. If you are going somewhere and can walk or carpool instead of driving your car, this is another great way to contribute to the solution. Hybrid cars are gaining popularity and interest by many consumers. There are many models on the market now and more choices than ever for all tastes and budgets. In addition to global climate changes in the atmosphere’s composition, changes in the land surface can have important effects on our climate. For example, a change in land use and cover can affect temperature by changing how much solar radiation the land reflects and absorbs. Processes such as deforestation, reforestation, desertification and urbanization often contribute to global climate change (including temperature, wind and precipitation) in places they occur. These effects may be significant regionally, but reduced when averaged over the entire globe. If we do nothing the global climate change will affect us sooner than we think. Some cities that are currently below sea level may be overwhelmingly flooded causing disasters around the world. Although we can never completely stop climate change, it is up to us to give the next generation the tools needed to slow down the process, therfore think about “how to go green”.
your Friend for „How To Go Green” – Article: „The Green Family – Additional3″ – http://www.just-a-green-live-4u.com

About the Author
The Author Erwin Heid is a freelance German Architect and Construction Biologist and owner of http://www.just-a-green-live-4u.com, to show people how to go green. Hey owned the page http://www.HomeworkKey.com too.

Source: Global Warming, Climate Change, Greenhouse Effect information at goarticles.com